Fuses product telemetry, support sentiment, invoice behavior, and stakeholder changes into account health that means something — and triggers renewal-risk or expansion playbooks with CSM approval, months before the renewal date makes it urgent.
The Churn / Expansion Sentinel combines product telemetry, support sentiment, invoice behavior and stakeholder changes into an account health score, and triggers renewal-risk or expansion playbooks with CSM approval well ahead of the renewal date. It is one of fifteen workflows in the Enterprise GTM Agent Stack, an Opsmarshal series on GTM stack architecture.
How the flow runs — live
Every score shows its drivers and their trend. Arguable beats accurate-but-ignored.
Health scores today are a traffic light nobody trusts: green accounts churn, red accounts renew, and CSMs learn the score is theater. Real risk hides in trajectories — seat stagnation, champion exit, support tone shift.
Health becomes an explained number: every score shows its drivers and their direction. Risk plays trigger with enough lead time to matter, expansion signals route with the same rigor, and the CSM stays the owner of every touch.
| Decision | Choice | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Explainability over accuracy | A slightly worse model CSMs trust beats a black box they ignore | Adoption is the metric. Driver-level explanations make the score arguable — and arguable means used. |
| Segment-specific weighting | Enterprise health ≠ SMB health | Login frequency predicts SMB churn and means nothing at 5,000 seats. Weights are per-segment config, versioned, recalibrated against actual renewal outcomes. |
Three curated scenarios — one that passes, one that flags for a human, one that the gate blocks. Watch the verdict, the evidence rows, and the audit log.
Governance audit log
Agents don't remove operators — they change what operators watch. Console spec: who owns it, what they check, what pages them, and how they pull the plug.
The model misses relationship-driven exits that telemetry can't see. Mitigation: Champion-tracker signals (WF-05) feed health directly; relationship risk is a first-class driver, not a footnote.
Every dip triggers a play until CSMs mute the sentinel entirely. Mitigation: Play budgets per CSM per week; sub-threshold changes batch into digests instead of interrupts.
Manual overrides hide risk to protect the renewal forecast. Mitigation: Overrides expire, require reasons, and are reported alongside the un-overridden score — hiding risk becomes visible work.
Opsmarshal builds workflows like this one inside client stacks — see GTM stack architecture and AI enablement and agentic workflows, or book a call to walk through your own.
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